The industrial city of Avdiivka has been contested for about 9 years, long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since the city was bordering the pro-Russian state of Donetsk People’s Republic, tension has been high. The first battle of Avdiivka happened in January through February of 2017, when Ukraine took it back from the separatists in heavy fighting. This battle was costly and was considered to be one of the battles with the highest casualties during the war in Donbass. Ever since the battle, the city of Avdviika has seen minor clashes and bombardment from the separatist republic until, the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
As of January and the New Year, Russian forces have been slowly advanced around Avdiivka, mostly pushing south near the heavily fortified woods. The woods just south of Avdiivka has been giving Russian forces a lot headaches due to the forest being heavily fortified since the Ukrainian war in the Donbas. Ever since the Russians captured the Promka industrial zone south of Avdiivka, this forest is extremely crucial to the Ukrainian defender in Avdiivka since this forest is the last bastion of defense until the first houses of Avdiivka. The Tsarskaya Okhota, also known as the Tsar’s Hunt, is one of these defensive forests.
Tsar’s Hunt has been a crucial defense point. However, on January 17-19th, Russian sappers were able to find a break. Using old Soviet pipe lines, these sappers were able to use this to attack the Tsar’s Hunts from the inside. This attack took the Ukrainians by surprise, and by January 20th, most of the Tsar’s Hunts’ defenders either surrendered or retreated into Avdiivka residential sector. A Ukrainian counter was able to retake some of the lost position in the Tsar’s Hunt, some Russian forces were able to occupy the Orhanizatsiya Soyuz sector of the Ukrainian residential zone. Later in February, Ukrainian forces fully withdrew their forces from the Tsar’s Hunt fortress, leaving the south of Avdiivka to the Russians.
On February 3rd, the second Russian mechanized columns from the 114th brigade north of Avdiivka was able to make a breakthrough north of Avdiivka. The Russians broke through more than 1 kilometer into Avdiivka, possibly cutting of the main supply route for the Ukrainian forces, and by February 10th, Russian forces moved through the city, reaching the end of the city. By February 13th, Russian forces have fully broken through Avdiivka city and is moving in to cut off the remaining supply depot, which are located at the village of Lastochkyne. This also put a strain in the Ukrainian defenders, and some new outlets stated the possible withdrawal from Avdiivka. However, there were no statements at the time.
As of February 16, the situation in Avdiivka has become worse as the last remaining route of escape for the Avdiivka defenders had been cut off by the Russian northern push in Avdiivka. At this time, Avdiivka has become a boiling cauldron as Ukrainians deploy the Elite Azov brigade to hold the onslaught of the Russian encirclement. Currently, some Ukrainian sources are announcing that the Ukrainians are outnumbered 1 to 17. The last hope for the Ukrainian defenders a 5 kilometer dirt road that leads Sieverne and, since it’s a muddy season, Ukrainian troops have to leave their heavy armored equipment not only because the Russian movement to incircle Avdiivka is only 3 kilometers from being completed, but also the risk of them getting stuck. This only route of escape is also likely a trap and this thin escape route can be used to bombard the escaping Ukrainians with suicide drones and heavy artillery.
As of February 20th, the Russian Forest has finally taken Avdiivka, after months of fighting (10 years if you consider the Donbass war). This victory is a significant value to the Donetsk People’s Republic, for this city under the Ukrainians has been a huge thorn on their boots for years and the taking of Avdiivka has a significant value for them. I would also like to acknowledge the 3rd Azov brigade for their valiant efforts to hold back the Russian advance and let remaining Ukrainian forces evacuate the Avdiivka cauldron.
The taking of Avdiivka has major consequences for Ukraine, as this loss would make further advancement for Russian forces much more easier. When it comes to the future of Ukraine, there is not an announcement for any offensive action to retake Avdiivka or any lost territory, so it’s probably suspected that Ukraine will be on the defensive for the rest of 2024.
